Conference Program 2024
Registration
Administrative Remarks / Welcome
Conference Director Dr Viljar Veebel
Opening Remarks / Welcome
Commandant of the Baltic Defence College, Brigadier General Alvydas Šiuparis
Keynote Address
Keynote address followed by Q&A: German Parliamentary State Secretary Ms Siemtje Möller
Moderated by Mr Louis Wierenga
Keynote Speech: “Russia 2024: What options left for Kremlin?”
LTG (ret) Ben Hodges
Moderated by Mr Louis Wierenga
Panel I: “Russia 2024: What options left for Kremlin?”
LTG (ret) Ben Hodges, Mr Jānis Kažociņš, Dr Konstantin von Eggert and H.E. Mr George P. Kent. Moderated by Dr Kristi Raik
Power Coffee Break / Online Session: "Pro-Russian Sentiments in European Politics: Motives and Modalities"
Dr Stefano Braghiroli and Dr Toms Rostoks
Despite two years of active Russian aggression against Ukraine, specific European MPs and party leaders persist in advocating for Russian stances. This session will explore the motivations and strategies behind this support, analysing the individuals involved and the arguments they present in opposition to Ukraine while aligning with Russian policies and narratives.
Panel II: “Belarus 2024: Russian Junior Partner Or …?
Dr Mark Ozawa, Mr James Sherr and Mr Kaupo Rosin. Moderated by Ms Alena Kudzko
Since 2022, Belarus has assumed a pivotal role in regional security dynamics. Contrary to expectations of democratic transition, it has traversed a more totalitarian political trajectory, emerging as a Russian bridgehead for an unforeseen offensive against Kyiv. This panel will engage in a discourse about the potential avenues for President Lukashenko's tenure or the prospects for democratic transformation within Belarus in 2024.
Online Session: "Russian Internal Politics and Presidential Elections"
Mr Marko Mihkelson
Introduction Tour to the Baltic Defence College
Introduction Tour to the Baltic Defence College (registration during coffee breaks)
Charity Dinner/Night Owl Session: "Informational Warfare vs. Actual Conflict: Russia 2024"
Charity address from Ms Iryna Bartsun
Welcome address from Tartu city by Mr Kaspar Kokk
Night Owl Session: "Informational Warfare vs. Actual Conflict: Russia 2024"
H.E. Mr Maksym Kononenko, Mr Elie Tenenbaum and Dr Matthias Schulze. Moderated by Mr Hans H. Luik
Russian informational warfare against its pro-Western neighbours has been increasingly active over the last two decades, gaining intensity in tandem with the brutal assault on Ukraine in 2022. As we venture into 2024, the stakes on the informational battlefield remain remarkably high. Russian leaders ardently strive for internal support to ensure their survival, while Ukraine seeks to rally Western donors and its own electorate for maximal backing.
Arrival of participants
Panel III: Student Panel: “Quo Vadis Russo-Ukrainian war 2024?”
Students of the Baltic Defence College—MAJ Artem Karpus, COL Cyril Iordanow, LTC Uku Arold and LTC Edwin Dähne. Moderated by LTC Liubov Pustova
The protracted and intense conflict between Russia and Ukraine has spanned over two years, precipitating a panorama of developments across military, political, and economic domains. The evolving technology landscape and shifting aspirations of the involved parties have coloured this confrontation. This student-led panel will dissect the prospects and implications of the Russo-Ukrainian war in the year 2024.
Coffee Break / Online Session "Quo Vadis Russo-Ukrainian War 2024"
Mr Gert Antsu and LTC Bohdan Pshendrovskyi
The protracted and intense conflict between Russia and Ukraine has spanned over two years, precipitating a panorama of developments across military, political, and economic domains. The evolving technology landscape and shifting aspirations of the involved parties have coloured this confrontation. This session will dissect the prospects and implications of the Russo-Ukrainian war in the year 2024.
Panel IV: "China's Role in Russia's Future"
Mr Marko Mihkelson, Dr Kārlis Bukovskis, Dr András Rácz and Dr Marcin Zaborowski. Moderated by Dr Asta Maskaliūnaitė
The recent surge of Russian aggression against Ukraine has triggered a significant shift in China's foreign policy and global aspirations. Amidst the Kremlin's urgent need for Chinese assistance, Beijing discerns an opportunity to ascend as a genuine global superpower through its own unique approach. From 2022 to 2023, China has deftly navigated between showing tacit solidarity with Russia and advancing its independent ambitions. Within the intricate landscape of Sino-Russian relations, including in countries like Belarus and Kazakhstan, this panel will deliberate on China's choices in 2024: whether to openly support, covertly aid, or remain uninvolved in Russia's affairs.
Buffet Lunch
Online Session: “Global South and BRICS Impacting Russian Ambitions”
Dr Illimar Ploom and H.E. Mr Emmanuel Mignot
While “Nordic West” has been united against Russia after aggression against Ukraine, Russia has found a lot of support among the countries of global south and BRICS. What are the reasons behind it and how does it impact the hopes that Western sanctions will force Russia out from Ukraine? What do we need to do and what we can do to change the situation?
Panel V: "Russia and Russians Through the Prism of International Law"
Mr Kaupo Känd, Mr Mark Voyger, Dr Leonid Karabeshkin and Dr Merilin Kiviorg
Russian leadership frequently avows adherence to international laws and regulations even in the midst of its so-called "Special Military Operation." In stark contrast, Western perspectives diverge, while China, India, and Brazil chart a middle ground in discerning legality and compliance. This panel will embark on an exploration of diverse stances, analysing the soundness of arguments and the legitimacy of interpretations within the realm of international law.
Coffee Break / Online Session: "Nordic Integration Into NATO: Impacts on Baltic States and Russia"
Ambassador Shota Gvineria and Ms Indrė Makaraitytė
The Russian incursion into Ukraine has prompted extensive mobilisation efforts across Baltic and Nordic societies, bolstering their security and defence capacities. As Russia's war against Ukraine endures, the scale and nature of these measures remain unstable. This session assesses the potential consequences and challenges of incorporating Nordic nations into NATO, projecting short-term security enhancements and possible long-term Russian counter-responses. Following prior discussions, this session aims to delineate the paramount priorities for Baltic and Nordic states within this intricate context.
Panel VI: "Russia 2024: Baltic and Nordic Security Imperatives"
Mr Hanno Pevkur, Mr Žilvinas Tomkus and Mr Olevs Nikers
Moderated by Dr Zdzisław Śliwa
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has spurred comprehensive mobilisation efforts within Baltic and Nordic societies to bolster their security and defence apparatus. However, while the conflict in Ukraine persists, the requisite measures and their scale remain enigmatic. The integration of Nordic nations into NATO is poised to enhance both their own security and that of the Baltic region in the short term, yet this move could engender Russian counteractions in the long run. This panel will convene to deliberate the paramount priorities for Baltic and Nordic states within this intricate context.
Closing Remarks
Annual Conference on Russia 2024-2025
Dean of the Baltic Defence College, Dr Zdzisław Śliwa